Market Unraveling and Quality Control in Agriculture
with Manzoor Dar, Kyle Emerick, Davis Gimode, Erin Kelley, Gregory Lane
2026
Pre-Analysis Plan accepted via pre-results review at the Journal of Development Economics
High-quality seeds are essential for raising agricultural productivity, but input markets in low-income countries often suffer from poor seed quality. Strengthening seed supply chains requires interventions that motivate farmers to produce genetically pure, high-quality seeds. However, such efforts are often undermined by moral hazard and adverse selection: growers may cut corners if monitoring is weak, and skilled producers may exit if prices fall or quality cannot be verified. This study tests two interventions designed to improve seed quality. The first offers higher prices to incentivize effort; the second introduces DNA fingerprinting to verify seed purity before purchase by seed companies. By addressing both moral hazard and adverse selection, these interventions aim to improve the reliability of local seed markets and increase the availability of high-yield, improved varieties. Our results will inform how to design contracts and monitoring tools that ensure the production of quality agricultural inputs.